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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare

The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are conducted: optimistic declarations are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".

After-Dark Attacks

As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a capability afforded by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.

Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.

Continuous Dangers

Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its target.

With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.

Failed Diplomacy

The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.

Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.

Strategic Calculations

It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to abandon the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.

Current Realities

Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.

These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.

Summary and Prospects

It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.

While new plans based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.