🔗 Share this article

Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.

"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.

Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."

Appeal for Wider Discussion

Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."